7/14/25 REcap: Trade Wars Heat Back Up As Tariff Threats Continue

Author: Eric Bernstein
Published: Jul 14, 2025

Last week was supposed to be a light news week, but with The Big Beautiful Bill signed and out of the way, the Trump administration has turned their focus back on trade deals. That means tariffs are back in the spotlight - reigniting concerns about inflation. But maybe financial markets are calling Trump's bluff this time around as mortgage rates have stayed pretty steady through the renewed chaos (so far).

The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan stayed mostly flat at 6.717% - barely up 6.691% the week before.

Bitcoin investors certainly didn't care about the tariff drama as Bitcoin hit a new all time high over the weekend - topping $122,000. Speaking of Bitcoin, you can actually qualify for a mortgage using just the Bitcoin in your Coinbase account with our new loan product. Learn more by clicking here.

The Tariff Clock is Ticking

President Trump’s trade war is back in full swing. The July 9th deadline for tariff reprieve has become August 1st, and after threatening 30% blanket tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting August 1, global markets and foreign leaders are bracing for impact. But EU and Mexico aren't the only potential victims of the Trade War, Brazil, South Korea, Japan and others also caught in Trump's crosshair.

While Trump originally promised 200 trade deals, only three have materialized so far—with the EU and South Korea rushing to become number four before the deadline. But countries like Brazil say they'll fight back with tariffs of their own.

Despite diplomatic tension, Trump’s new tariff posture has been emboldened by strong stock market performance, stable mortgage rates and surging customs revenue. My take is that the market has lived through this before and now they're unfazed. We might not see a market reaction until steep tariffs actually go into place on August 1st (and remain in place for more than 3 days). Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Is Powell Resigning??

Rumors are swirling that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may resign soon - but not because of the reason you think. Powell is facing mounting political pressure and scrutiny over the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s D.C. headquarters. Fannie Mae Chairman William Pulte added fuel to the fire, saying he’s “encouraged” by reports and calling Powell’s departure “the right decision for America.”

Despite the noise, there’s not much concrete evidence Powell is packing his bags. This could be more political theater than policy pivot. Powell has weathered heavy criticism before, including Trump trying to fire him—and has held steady through it all. Even if he were to resign, it’s unclear whether his replacement would move quickly to slash rates or dramatically change course. For now, markets should stay grounded. Rate policy remains on pause, and barring a true shakeup, wishful thinking won’t get us closer to 3% overnight.

Fed Still Split, Tariffs Cloud the Outlook

Minutes from the June 17–18 FOMC meeting released this week show a clear split among Fed officials over the inflationary impact of tariffs. Some viewed the effect as a one-time bump, while most warned of more persistent price pressures. As we know, despite the uncertainty, the committee held rates steady for a fourth time, with 10 of 19 officials still forecasting at least two cuts before year-end (but I'm still hopeful for 3).

Public remarks from Fed members this week have added more color to the picture. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said two cuts are still on the table and cautioned against waiting too long, even suggesting tariff-driven inflation may not materialize as feared. We like that! St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem echoed concern over upside risks but emphasized that the inflation data from Q3 and Q4 will be key to understanding the real impact. With the next Fed meeting set for July 29–30, these post-minutes speeches suggest internal momentum is quietly building toward a fall pivot.

Rate Cut Predictions

Trade war flare ups has decimated our hopes of a July cut but, September is still the odds-on favorite. We'll see if inflation data this week (and hopefully a few trade deals) can push rates lower this week.

This Week's Top Learning Center Articles

We're still pumping out LendFriend Learning Center articles every day with the goal to help homebuyers get educated and buy with confidence.

Key reporting dates this week:

Mon, 7/14: None Scheduled

Tues, 7/15: Consumer price index, Core CPI, Empire State manufacturing survey

Wed, 7/16: Producer price index, Core PPI, Fed Beige Book

Thurs, 7/17: Initial jobless claims, US retail sales, Import price index, Business inventories

Fri, 7/18: Housing starts, Building permits, Consumer sentiment

Tragic Texas Floods - Here's How You Can Help

Texas is still in a state of emergency, with rescue and recovery efforts ongoing across many communities. The loss of life—especially among children—has been heartbreaking and deeply felt across the state.

Many people have lost everything as a result of the flooding. Many have already generously donated but uf you are looking for ways to help, there are several great charities to donate to, whether you're looking to donate clothes or items.

I'm always here to help so if you have any questions or just want to learn more, schedule a call or connect with me here.

About the Author:

Eric Bernstein

Eric Bernstein is the President and Co-Founder of LendFriend Mortgage, where he helps homebuyers make smarter, more confident decisions in today’s fast-moving housing market. With over a decade of experience guiding hundreds of clients—from first-time buyers to seasoned investors—Eric brings a mix of market insight, strategy, and personalized service to every mortgage transaction. Each week, Eric breaks down the housing and economic headlines that matter, giving readers a clear, no-fluff view of what’s happening and how it might impact their buying power.