Author: Eric BernsteinPublished:
Rates stayed steady last week as labor reporting came in better than expected across the board. However, markets remain HIGHLY focused on what's going on with Iran. While oil prices have trended downward during the ceasefire, they are still 30% above where they were before the US-Iran conflict began, which could spell trouble for inflation concerns.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan stayed flat at 6.32%. See what rates we're offering by signing up for our Friday rate texts.
Our LendFriend Learning Center now has over 300 articles to help homebuyers buy with confidence. Check out our top articles of the week at the bottom of this email.
JOBS JOBS JOBS
Job Openings, Hiring & Quits (JOLTS – March 2026)
Job openings slipped 56,000 to 6.866 million in March, while hiring surged by 655,000 to 5.554 million — an encouraging sign the labor market may be steadying. Layoffs rose by 153,000 to 1.867 million, worth keeping an eye on.
ADP Private Payrolls (ADP – April 2026)
Private sector companies added 109,000 jobs in April, the best ADP reading since January 2025 and well above the 84,000 consensus estimate. Education and health services led the way with 61,000 new hires, though professional and business services shed 8,000 — a reminder that gains remain narrowly concentrated.
The Big Labor Report (BLS – April 2026)
Payrolls rose 115,000 in April, well above the 55,000 forecast, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. Wage growth came in softer than expected at 3.6% annually. Healthcare led gains while information services continued shrinking.
What This Means for Rates
These numbers are subject to meaningful revision. February's jobs report was revised to go from a reported loss of 92,000 to 156,000, so treat any single report with caution. The broader picture is a labor market that's stable but not strong, and a Fed in no rush to cut. Until inflation cools or hiring deteriorates more decisively, mortgage rates are likely to stay rangebound and any move lower will be gradual.
New Home Sales Beat Estimates
New home sales surged 7.4% in March to an annualized rate of 682,000 units, rebounding from winter storm disruptions earlier in the year. The median new home price fell 6.2% year-over-year to $387,400, largely due to elevated inventory sitting at an 8.5-month supply. With supply still high, buyers have real negotiating leverage with builders right now — and that's worth taking advantage of.
Many builders are offering incentives like rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and price reductions to move inventory. The key is making sure those incentives aren't tied to using the builder's in-house lender. Captive lenders exist to serve the builder's bottom line, not yours, and the rate you receive through them is often higher than what you'd get elsewhere — meaning the "incentive" can quietly cost you more than it saves. A good mortgage broker can help you capture the builder's incentive while still shopping the market for the best rate, so you're not leaving money on either side of the table.
What to expect this week?
This week is one of the more important ones we've seen in a while for mortgage rates. With a new Fed chair coming in and inflation data still running hot — headline CPI expected at 3.8% and core at 2.7% — the Tuesday CPI report alone could shift where mortgage rates head for the rest of the month. A cooler reading opens the door for rates to ease; a hotter one keeps them rangebound or worse.
Monday starts quietly with existing home sales for April, expected to come in around 4.02 million units.
Tuesday is the main event — CPI and core CPI for April, plus New York Fed President Williams speaking early. Markets will be parsing every word for signals on how the new Fed leadership is thinking about inflation.
Wednesday brings PPI data, rounding out the inflation picture from the producer side, alongside speeches from Fed Presidents Musalem and Goolsbee.
Thursday brings retail sales, import prices, and jobless claims, plus remarks from Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Williams again — two of the three officials who dissented against the easing bias at last week's meeting.
Friday closes with Empire State manufacturing, industrial production, and capacity utilization — a final read on whether the broader economy is holding up heading into June.
I'm always here to help so if you have any questions or just want to learn more, schedule a call or connect with me here.
.png?width=1200&height=244&name=Homebuyer%20Tools%20Header%20(10).png)
