Author: Eric BernsteinPublished:
Mortgage rates fell again last week as reports poured in that a China trade deal may be closer than we think. Keep in mind, before the drama with Trump's tariffs started, mortgage rates were sitting at 6 month lows, so most (if not all) of the recent increase can be erased if we can put these tariffs behind us before prices rise.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan dropped to 6.75% - down from 6.78% just the week before. HOWEVER, our client just secured a 6.375% on Friday. The average rate is NOT your rate. Get in touch with me today to find out how much better your rate can be. Sign up for our weekly Friday rate texts to stay in the know on where rates are week by week!
Trump Says Powell Will Stay
In an Oval Office appearance on April 22, he said he had “no intention” of firing Powell, and claimed that he “never did.” The statement came a few days after Trump said on TruthSocial “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” Trump was forced to walk back his statements about Powell after the market reacted extremely negative to any implication that the Federal Reserve no longer has independence from the Executive Branch.
Powell also had a variety of influential business people and political figures come to his aid to stress that Powell has been doing a great job and the president cannot remove Powell from his post.
Stocks jumped and rates fell following Trump's smoothing over of the situation. We'll see how long this truce lasts, especially with the next Fed meeting quickly approaching on 5/7 (next Wednesday). Markets currently expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its May 6-7 policy meeting, but the market and Trump may have different expectations.
Home Sales Are Mixed
New home sales jumped as people took advantage of lower new home prices to buy new construction homes. Most of these homes were sold in just one part of the country, the South, where 483k of the 724k national total were sold, and over half of the homes sold for less than $400k.
The 724k total is well above the 685k expected, but economists believe that this number will start to fall as builders are slowing down production as a result of the trade tensions.
Uncertainty in the economy is leading builders to take a wait-and-see approach rather than forge ahead with plans. That's not great for buyers as we are still in a massive housing supply shortage and new construction is one of the best avenues of reducing that shortage. Less homes = higher prices if demand remains at these levels.
On the other hand, nationwide existing home sales slumped falling 5.9% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.02 million in March 2025. Year-over-year, sales drew back 2.4%. As a reminder, the nationwide reporting isn't nearly as relevant as local markets, which is why I don't cover it too often. Real estate is local, and can vary tremendously city to city and even from one neighborhood to another. Just see how much stats can change when you're looking at the counties in the DFW metroplex - where closed sales volume varies from -15% year over year to +30%!
This is all to say - don't get spooked by national numbers. remember to research your local market and find out if you're in a buyer's or a seller's market.
There is a Path
On Friday, Donald Trump asserted in an interview that tariff negotiations were under way with China, comments he repeated on his way to Rome to attend the funeral of Pope Francis, but were later denied by China’s foreign ministry.
Bessent - the level headed US Secretary of Treasury the market is starting to love - told ABC News' "This Week" co-anchor Martha Raddatz "I don't know if President Trump has spoken with President Xi. I know they have a very good relationship and a lot of respect for each other, but again, I think that the Chinese will see that this high tariff level is unsustainable for their business model,"
He went on to say "A trade deal can take months, but an agreement in principle and, the good behavior and staying within the parameter of the deal by our trading partners can keep the tariffs from ratcheting back to the maximum level."
And that's something we all want to see. The big line that people are hanging on to following Bessent's interview with ABC News is "I think that there is a path here."
Rate Cut Predictions
There's a 93% chance the Fed won't cut rates next week and that's okay! This week is a BIG week for labor and inflation numbers, but June 18th still looks like the first time we'll see a rate cut this year.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan dropped to 6.75% - down from 6.78% just the week before. HOWEVER, our client just secured a 6.375% on Friday. The average rate is NOT your rate. Get in touch with me today to find out how much better your rate can be. Sign up for our weekly Friday rate texts to stay in the know on where rates are week by week!
Trump Says Powell Will Stay
In an Oval Office appearance on April 22, he said he had “no intention” of firing Powell, and claimed that he “never did.” The statement came a few days after Trump said on TruthSocial “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” Trump was forced to walk back his statements about Powell after the market reacted extremely negative to any implication that the Federal Reserve no longer has independence from the Executive Branch.
Powell also had a variety of influential business people and political figures come to his aid to stress that Powell has been doing a great job and the president cannot remove Powell from his post.
Stocks jumped and rates fell following Trump's smoothing over of the situation. We'll see how long this truce lasts, especially with the next Fed meeting quickly approaching on 5/7 (next Wednesday). Markets currently expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its May 6-7 policy meeting, but the market and Trump may have different expectations.
Home Sales Are Mixed
New home sales jumped as people took advantage of lower new home prices to buy new construction homes. Most of these homes were sold in just one part of the country, the South, where 483k of the 724k national total were sold, and over half of the homes sold for less than $400k.
The 724k total is well above the 685k expected, but economists believe that this number will start to fall as builders are slowing down production as a result of the trade tensions.
Uncertainty in the economy is leading builders to take a wait-and-see approach rather than forge ahead with plans. That's not great for buyers as we are still in a massive housing supply shortage and new construction is one of the best avenues of reducing that shortage. Less homes = higher prices if demand remains at these levels.
On the other hand, nationwide existing home sales slumped falling 5.9% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.02 million in March 2025. Year-over-year, sales drew back 2.4%. As a reminder, the nationwide reporting isn't nearly as relevant as local markets, which is why I don't cover it too often. Real estate is local, and can vary tremendously city to city and even from one neighborhood to another. Just see how much stats can change when you're looking at the counties in the DFW metroplex - where closed sales volume varies from -15% year over year to +30%!
This is all to say - don't get spooked by national numbers. remember to research your local market and find out if you're in a buyer's or a seller's market.
There is a Path
On Friday, Donald Trump asserted in an interview that tariff negotiations were under way with China, comments he repeated on his way to Rome to attend the funeral of Pope Francis, but were later denied by China’s foreign ministry.
Bessent - the level headed US Secretary of Treasury the market is starting to love - told ABC News' "This Week" co-anchor Martha Raddatz "I don't know if President Trump has spoken with President Xi. I know they have a very good relationship and a lot of respect for each other, but again, I think that the Chinese will see that this high tariff level is unsustainable for their business model,"
He went on to say "A trade deal can take months, but an agreement in principle and, the good behavior and staying within the parameter of the deal by our trading partners can keep the tariffs from ratcheting back to the maximum level."
And that's something we all want to see. The big line that people are hanging on to following Bessent's interview with ABC News is "I think that there is a path here."
Rate Cut Predictions
There's a 93% chance the Fed won't cut rates next week and that's okay! This week is a BIG week for labor and inflation numbers, but June 18th still looks like the first time we'll see a rate cut this year.
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Key reporting dates this week:
Mon, 4/28: None Scheduled
Tues, 4/29: Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, Advanced retail inventories, Consumer Confidence, Job Openings
Wed, 4/30: ADP employment, GDP, Consumer Spending, PCE index, Core PCE index, Pending home sales
Thurs, 5/1: Auto sales, S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI
Fri, 5/2: Jobs Report, U.S. unemployment rate, Factory orders
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About the Author:
Eric Bernstein is the President and Co-Founder of LendFriend Mortgage, where he helps homebuyers make smarter, more confident decisions in today’s fast-moving housing market. With over a decade of experience guiding hundreds of clients—from first-time buyers to seasoned investors—Eric brings a mix of market insight, strategy, and personalized service to every mortgage transaction. Each week, Eric breaks down the housing and economic headlines that matter, giving readers a clear, no-fluff view of what’s happening and how it might impact their buying power.