Author: Eric BernsteinPublished:
Last week was light on reported data but heavy on Fed commentary. Many members of the Federal Reserve spoke publicly last week, and pretty much all had the same theme. When it comes to rate cuts, patience is key.
The average 30-year fixed rate conventional loan rose last week to 6.73%! Sign up for our weekly Friday rate texts to see all the great options LendFriend provides to homebuyers!
Rates may FEEL like they have significantly risen since the start of 2024, but they haven't. The average 30-year fixed rate conventional loan started the year at 6.65%, and since rates peaked on 10/25, they've only ever fallen as low as 6.497%. Context is important!
The Fed says time will tell.... and they need time.
Every homebuyer, real estate professional and seller is rooting for rate cuts! But how do we get there? Listen to the Fed...
Some of the key quotes we heard this last week from members of the Federal Reserve were.
The Fed will be in a position to cut rates if “we just keep getting more data [showing inflation right around or even below the Fed's target of 2%].” - Austin Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President
“I will need to see more evidence [of inflation falling] before considering adjusting the policy stance" - Boston Fed President Susan Collins
“We just need to look at the actual inflation data to guide us... there are compelling arguments to suggest we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward.” - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
"I am pleased by the progress on inflation and optimistic it will continue. If progress does stall, she said, the policy interest rate may have to be held "at its current level for longer." - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler
"I'm really not seeing any urgency to make any additional adjustments at this time," adding that she wants to "build our confidence whether the progress that we've seen on inflation will be sustained." - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
Now, the good news is that Powell confirmed the Fed is extremely unlikely to raise rates further, but no one said how much time is needed exactly before cutting rates. One thing is certain, the Fed members need to be able to assess how inflation will react in light of the job market that continues to stay hot.
In other news...
Consumer credit came in MUCH lower than expected. It seems that consumers slammed the brakes on spending after the holiday spending spree. However, delinquencies are still rising above pre-pandemic levels, signaling increased financial stress, especially for younger and lower-income households.
US weekly jobless claims stay low despite high-profile layoff announcements from companies like Google, PayPal and Macy's. The layoffs and cost-cutting talked about in many company earnings reports is just not showing up in the weekly unemployment claims statistic.
The Fed says they need to see more inflation data and they're going to get just that this week! CPI numbers come out tomorrow! Hopefully we are in for a nice surprise!
The average 30-year fixed rate conventional loan rose last week to 6.73%! Sign up for our weekly Friday rate texts to see all the great options LendFriend provides to homebuyers!
Rates may FEEL like they have significantly risen since the start of 2024, but they haven't. The average 30-year fixed rate conventional loan started the year at 6.65%, and since rates peaked on 10/25, they've only ever fallen as low as 6.497%. Context is important!
The Fed says time will tell.... and they need time.
Every homebuyer, real estate professional and seller is rooting for rate cuts! But how do we get there? Listen to the Fed...
Some of the key quotes we heard this last week from members of the Federal Reserve were.
The Fed will be in a position to cut rates if “we just keep getting more data [showing inflation right around or even below the Fed's target of 2%].” - Austin Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President
“I will need to see more evidence [of inflation falling] before considering adjusting the policy stance" - Boston Fed President Susan Collins
“We just need to look at the actual inflation data to guide us... there are compelling arguments to suggest we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward.” - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
"I am pleased by the progress on inflation and optimistic it will continue. If progress does stall, she said, the policy interest rate may have to be held "at its current level for longer." - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler
"I'm really not seeing any urgency to make any additional adjustments at this time," adding that she wants to "build our confidence whether the progress that we've seen on inflation will be sustained." - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
Now, the good news is that Powell confirmed the Fed is extremely unlikely to raise rates further, but no one said how much time is needed exactly before cutting rates. One thing is certain, the Fed members need to be able to assess how inflation will react in light of the job market that continues to stay hot.
In other news...
Consumer credit came in MUCH lower than expected. It seems that consumers slammed the brakes on spending after the holiday spending spree. However, delinquencies are still rising above pre-pandemic levels, signaling increased financial stress, especially for younger and lower-income households.
US weekly jobless claims stay low despite high-profile layoff announcements from companies like Google, PayPal and Macy's. The layoffs and cost-cutting talked about in many company earnings reports is just not showing up in the weekly unemployment claims statistic.
The Fed says they need to see more inflation data and they're going to get just that this week! CPI numbers come out tomorrow! Hopefully we are in for a nice surprise!
Key reporting dates this week:
Mon, 2/12: Fed members speaking, Monthly US Budget
Tues, 2/13: CPI, Core CPI
Wed, 2/14: Fed members speaking
Thurs, 2/15: Initial Jobless Claims, Import Price Index, Homebuilder Confidence, Fed members speaking
Fri, 2/16: Housing starts, Building permits, PPI, Core PPI
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About the Author:
Eric Bernstein is the President and Co-Founder of LendFriend Mortgage, where he helps homebuyers make smarter, more confident decisions in today’s fast-moving housing market. With over a decade of experience guiding hundreds of clients—from first-time buyers to seasoned investors—Eric brings a mix of market insight, strategy, and personalized service to every mortgage transaction. Each week, Eric breaks down the housing and economic headlines that matter, giving readers a clear, no-fluff view of what’s happening and how it might impact their buying power.