8/11/25 REcap: Big Changes At The Fed Are Coming

Another great resource for homebuyers - our LendFriend Learning Center has over 100 articles to help homebuyers buy with confidence. Check out top articles of the week are at the bottom of this email, including how and why mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve.

Rate Cut Predictions And Trump's New Appointee

September rate cut is looking more and more certain. Analysts currently say there's an 89% chance of a cut on September 17th. And JP Morgan, for the first time in a long time, agrees. They just announced a revision in their own rate forecast. After previously stating that the first rate cut would come in December, JPM now believes we'll see the first cut in September and see 3 more quarter-point cuts before the Fed hits the pause button again. 

The change in stance comes after Trump announced his nominee, Stephen Miran, to replace outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler. Miran, who could be voting in the September meeting if his appointment is confirmed, is a very vocal supporter of Trump and his economic policies. He believes that Trump's policies, including his stance on tariffs, are actually disinflationary. Miran also co-authored a paper for the Manhattan Institute where out a case for increasing presidential control of the Fed Board. He'll vote however Trump wants (which means rate cuts) and with 3 Fed members staunchly in favor of rate cuts, Powell will likely cave. 

Ultimately, for mortgage rates to fall, the market needs to expect that the Fed will start cutting sooner and harder. It's less about action and more about expectation. You can read about it in our blog post about the connection between the Fed Funds Rate and mortgage rates.