7/7/25 REcap: Is the Big, Beautiful Bill Going to Help Homebuyers?

 The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan stayed mostly flat at 6.691%  - barely up 6.678% the week before. 

Remember the average rate ≠ your rate with LendFriend. Make sure you're signed up for our weekly Friday rate alerts to see our sharpest pricing. One borrower said in his Google Review that he got a "whole point lower than chase!" after finding us through our rate alerts.

JOBS JOBS JOBS

It was another interest week of jobs data this month. The labor market looks strong, but is it actually?

Job Openings kicked off the job reporting, and much to everyone's surprise, came in much higher - up to 374k to 7.769M and much higher than the 7.3M expected. It's typically seen as a sign of a growing economy because employers can't fire fast enough. Oddly though, that hasn't been the case. Job openings are growing but the rate of hiring is falling month after month - a sign that the labor market is cooling. After this report, economists like Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics prediected "We do expect the June employment report to show a slower pace of job growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate." 

Next, private payrolls showed a decrease of 33,000 in June, a shock from the 100,000 increase expected. It's the second month in a row where private payrolls missed badly and the first the decrease shown in the reporting since March 2023. “Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. It makes sense, not only are employers unsure of the long term trajectory of the economy, but they are also looking to reduce their workforce with AI at every turn.

Finally the official Friday Job's Report showed 147,000 new jobs added - better than the 110,000 expected! It's A BIG beat for the THIRD month in a row.... defyeing economist expectations. Unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, but not everyone is cheering. A look under the hood shows that 73k new jobs came from government positions. 53k came from private education and health services and the rest of the sectors were pretty dismal. PLUS people are taking longer to find new jobs and Americans on average are working less hours.

Overall, the headline data shows a strong economy, but we'll have to wait and see if the underlying data shows a more stark picture. As an FYI, if you're looking for work or know someone who is, the health sector has been and is projected to continue to be booming for years to come.

The Big, Beautiful Bill Passes

After a lot of drama, President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” was officially signed into law on July 4, and, good or bad, it's bringing sweeping tax changes—with meaningful implications for homeowners and buyers.

It permanently restores the mortgage insurance premium deduction, saving eligible buyers with low down payments hundreds (or even thousands) each year in tax savings. The bill also raises the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for the next 5 years. offering substantial tax relief to buyers in higher-tax markets like the Northeast, but also helping homebuyers with high property tax bills here in Texas since property taxes are eligible as well! These 2 changes will make homeowning more affordable, which in turn helps more people make the decision to buy vs rent.

The bill also aims to promote construction, which hopefully leads to more housing supply and greater home affordability. While the bill skews toward higher-income households, it may indirectly help first-time buyers in Texas if more inventory hits the market in the coming years.

Tariff Deadline Delayed—And That’s Good News for Rates

Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that countries without new trade deals won’t face steep Liberation Day tariffs until August 1, not July 9 as initially expected. That should give markets a breather this week after many were worried that not enough trade agreements had been secured to avoid another largely negative reaction like we saw back in April. That delay should keep global tensions—and inflation—at bay. However, even with the delay, Bessent believes we'll see several trade deals get announced this week.

For mortgage borrowers, that’s a win. Tariffs are expected to drive up the cost of goods, fueling inflation and pushing interest rates higher. With the deadline now extended and trade talks ongoing, we should see less pressure on bond yields, which helps keep mortgage rates in check. It also reduces the risk of a sudden market jolt that could reverse recent improvements in rate trends.

Rate Cut Predictions

Fed Chair Jerome Powell took the mic last week and reiterated that the central bank won’t cut rates until it sees more evidence that inflation is cooling. Powell emphasized the need for “greater confidence” before making a move. More of the same rhetoric (as expected), however the strong labor data was enough to silence some expecting a rate cut in July. September is still the odds-on favorite.

The LendFriend Learning Center is FILLED with amazing articles that help homebuyers get educated and buy with confidence. 

Key reporting dates this week: 

Mon, 7/7: None Scheduled
Tues, 7/8:  Consumer credit
Wed, 7/9: Wholesale inventories, Minutes of Fed's May FOMC meeting
Thurs, 7/10: Initial jobless claims
Fri, 7/11: Monthly U.S. federal budget

Tragic Texas Floods - Here's How You Can Help

Over the weekend, tragedy struck our area when devastating floods in several parts of Texas, left at least 82 dead - including 27 children and staffers from an all girl's summer camp. 41 people remain missing. The loss in unimaginable.
 
If you are looking for ways to help, there are several great charities to donate to, whether you're looking to donate clothes or items.. LendFriend has made donations to both Texas Search & Rescue and Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country in response to this tragedy.