Author: Eric BernsteinPublished:
Ok so home prices didn't have any Black Friday deals, but mortgage rates fell quite a bit and that's something to be thankful for!
Some good inflation news paired with an overall less volatile bond market helped push the 30-year fixed rate down by almost 1/8th of a percent - which is a big one week drop. This trend just might continue if we see weaker than expect labor numbers this week!
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan dropped to 6.67% (down from 6.80% last week)! Sign up for our weekly Friday rate texts to see all the great options LendFriend provides to homebuyers!
Inflation Stays Steady
It's hard to remember a time when we weren't concerned about inflation reports, but with retail sales numbers and consumer spending on the rise in recent months, this report had me especially nervous!
Luckily, PCE reporting (the Fed's favorite inflation metric) came in as expected with a 0.2% increase on the month and a 2.3% increase annually, both in line with expectations. Other important metrics reported in the PCE data showed that spending increased as expected, income came in 2x higher than expected and personal savings plummeted to the lowest levels since 2023.
Remember, while we're all happy inflation is MUCH lower than the peak of 7.2% we saw in June 2022, it's not quite at the Fed's 2% target yet, which means the Fed may be hesitant to keep cutting rates. However, at least for now, as long as we aren't seeing inflation head higher, we're going to see mortgage rates keep sliding back to where they were in September.
Fed Minutes Show Uncertainty on Future Rate Cuts
The November Fed Meeting Minutes were released last week. “Many participants observed that uncertainties concerning the level of the neutral rate of interest complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually,” the minutes said.
We know Powell isn't thrilled about cutting rates further unless employment data shows deterioration (which it might this week) and inflation ACTUALLY hits 2%, but now we're seeing that the other members might feel the same way.
The market still largely expects another rate cut on December 18th. Chances of a third rate cut rose to 62.2% right now (up from 55% last week). The next 2 weeks will have a huge impact on whether or not we'll see that third rate cut.
Homebuyers Come Off the Sidelines
The housing market appears to be heating up after the election. U.S. pending home sales rose 12.1% year over year during the four weeks ending November 24th, the biggest increase since May 2021.
Buyers in today's market constantly need to be asking themselves if they are cutting their nose to spite their face. Meaning, is waiting for mortgage rates to fall 1% worth paying an extra 5% on your home price? Home prices keep going up despite mortgage rates remaining in the 6-7% range.
At LendFriend, we always try to help homebuyers bridge the gap between higher rates and buying today, which is why we offer our Rate Rebound, so you can buy today and enjoy a low cost refinance whenever rates finally fall. We had over 20 clients take advantage of our Rate Rebound program just last month when rates dipped below 6% briefly. Now they are enjoying the benefits of home appreciation WITH a rate in the 5s. If you are thinking about coming off the sidelines and buying in today's market, let me know and I'll help you get started!
BIG week of labor marketing data. I'm hoping the data shows that things are looking CHILLY❄️. If they do, we'll see mortgage rates fall this week.
Some good inflation news paired with an overall less volatile bond market helped push the 30-year fixed rate down by almost 1/8th of a percent - which is a big one week drop. This trend just might continue if we see weaker than expect labor numbers this week!
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan dropped to 6.67% (down from 6.80% last week)! Sign up for our weekly Friday rate texts to see all the great options LendFriend provides to homebuyers!
Inflation Stays Steady
It's hard to remember a time when we weren't concerned about inflation reports, but with retail sales numbers and consumer spending on the rise in recent months, this report had me especially nervous!
Luckily, PCE reporting (the Fed's favorite inflation metric) came in as expected with a 0.2% increase on the month and a 2.3% increase annually, both in line with expectations. Other important metrics reported in the PCE data showed that spending increased as expected, income came in 2x higher than expected and personal savings plummeted to the lowest levels since 2023.
Remember, while we're all happy inflation is MUCH lower than the peak of 7.2% we saw in June 2022, it's not quite at the Fed's 2% target yet, which means the Fed may be hesitant to keep cutting rates. However, at least for now, as long as we aren't seeing inflation head higher, we're going to see mortgage rates keep sliding back to where they were in September.
Fed Minutes Show Uncertainty on Future Rate Cuts
The November Fed Meeting Minutes were released last week. “Many participants observed that uncertainties concerning the level of the neutral rate of interest complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually,” the minutes said.
We know Powell isn't thrilled about cutting rates further unless employment data shows deterioration (which it might this week) and inflation ACTUALLY hits 2%, but now we're seeing that the other members might feel the same way.
The market still largely expects another rate cut on December 18th. Chances of a third rate cut rose to 62.2% right now (up from 55% last week). The next 2 weeks will have a huge impact on whether or not we'll see that third rate cut.
Homebuyers Come Off the Sidelines
The housing market appears to be heating up after the election. U.S. pending home sales rose 12.1% year over year during the four weeks ending November 24th, the biggest increase since May 2021.
Buyers in today's market constantly need to be asking themselves if they are cutting their nose to spite their face. Meaning, is waiting for mortgage rates to fall 1% worth paying an extra 5% on your home price? Home prices keep going up despite mortgage rates remaining in the 6-7% range.
At LendFriend, we always try to help homebuyers bridge the gap between higher rates and buying today, which is why we offer our Rate Rebound, so you can buy today and enjoy a low cost refinance whenever rates finally fall. We had over 20 clients take advantage of our Rate Rebound program just last month when rates dipped below 6% briefly. Now they are enjoying the benefits of home appreciation WITH a rate in the 5s. If you are thinking about coming off the sidelines and buying in today's market, let me know and I'll help you get started!
BIG week of labor marketing data. I'm hoping the data shows that things are looking CHILLY❄️. If they do, we'll see mortgage rates fall this week.
Key reporting dates this week:
Mon, 12/2: S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, Construction spending
Tues, 12/3: S&P Job openings
Wed, 12/4: ADP employment, Factory orders, Powell speaks
Thurs, 12/5: Initial jobless claims, U.S. trade deficit
Fri, 12/6: U.S. employment report, Consumer credit
.png?width=1200&height=244&name=Homebuyer%20Tools%20Header%20(10).png)
About the Author:
Eric Bernstein is the President and Co-Founder of LendFriend Mortgage, where he helps homebuyers make smarter, more confident decisions in today’s fast-moving housing market. With over a decade of experience guiding hundreds of clients—from first-time buyers to seasoned investors—Eric brings a mix of market insight, strategy, and personalized service to every mortgage transaction. Each week, Eric breaks down the housing and economic headlines that matter, giving readers a clear, no-fluff view of what’s happening and how it might impact their buying power.